"General Mud" Putin's biggest enemy and Ukraine's only ally
The line between disorder and order lies in logistics – Sun Tzu
The line between disorder and order lies in logistics – Sun Tzu
What is General mud?
If you read history you should come to the conclusion that an invasion towards Russia never ended well. Both Napoleon and Hitler failed with their respectives invasions to this enormous country and both have in common that the winter and the mud made their plans fall apart.
Rasputitsa or better known as "General Mud" in the west is the name given to two seasons of the Russian year, spring and autumn that also take place in Belarus and Ukraine. You can say that Rasputitsta takes place when the mud invades the roads and makes it practically impossible to transport almost anything without a good preparation for it because the rain melts with the snow.
This makes logistics very difficult on account of the fact that troops and tanks must slow down and expose them to attacks and extreme hunger; here even the rivers become obstacles for the invaders and make their attacks a living hell. The thing that once made the Russian people invincible now could help the ukraniansto defeat them.
If you read history you should come to the conclusion that an invasion towards Russia never ended well. Both Napoleon and Hitler failed with their respectives invasions to this enormous country and both have in common that the winter and the mud made their plans fall apart.
Rasputitsa or better known as "General Mud" in the west is the name given to two seasons of the Russian year, spring and autumn that also take place in Belarus and Ukraine. You can say that Rasputitsta takes place when the mud invades the roads and makes it practically impossible to transport almost anything without a good preparation for it because the rain melts with the snow.
This makes logistics very difficult on account of the fact that troops and tanks must slow down and expose them to attacks and extreme hunger; here even the rivers become obstacles for the invaders and make their attacks a living hell. The thing that once made the Russian people invincible now could help the ukraniansto defeat them.
The Russian logistical problem
We need to take into account that large military invasions move slowly and this one is recent, pretty recent but without fuel or food it's impossible to defeat an army. Russia has a big problem with both of these things and the general mud can make it even worse.Russia planned to capture Kiev in days and to put an end to this situation quickly but they failed maybe because they thought of the Ukrainian as weak or maybe because they believed that their forces were way better.
Another big problem for the russian is the amount of broken equipment is increasing in vehicles and ammo and this will result in an increasing demand on recovery vehicles and maintenance teams will play a big role.
The main goal of Putin is Kiev and is widely known but in order to accomplish this goal his army need fuel and food. The food is supplied by a lot of trucks and you can see videos all over the internet of them being destroyed and targeted by a fierce Ukrainian defense.
The problems happened when the Russian army resupply and the javelins picked them apart. This supply shortages will not be enough to defeat the russian only will slow them down but will give the Ukranians time to attack and if General Mud picks their side will really make the roads to Kiev impossible to cross.
We need to take into account that large military invasions move slowly and this one is recent, pretty recent but without fuel or food it's impossible to defeat an army. Russia has a big problem with both of these things and the general mud can make it even worse.Russia planned to capture Kiev in days and to put an end to this situation quickly but they failed maybe because they thought of the Ukrainian as weak or maybe because they believed that their forces were way better.
Another big problem for the russian is the amount of broken equipment is increasing in vehicles and ammo and this will result in an increasing demand on recovery vehicles and maintenance teams will play a big role.
The main goal of Putin is Kiev and is widely known but in order to accomplish this goal his army need fuel and food. The food is supplied by a lot of trucks and you can see videos all over the internet of them being destroyed and targeted by a fierce Ukrainian defense.
The problems happened when the Russian army resupply and the javelins picked them apart. This supply shortages will not be enough to defeat the russian only will slow them down but will give the Ukranians time to attack and if General Mud picks their side will really make the roads to Kiev impossible to cross.
The Ukraine advantage and how can they use it
The advantages of having your enemy blinded by the weather and inmobyl are lots but I think that drones are going to play a great role in attacking this russian phalanx that isn't going to be able to move with comfort. The other thing that benefits the Ukranians is that this mud and snow will free for a period of time the air space that harms the Ukranians and provokes civilian casualties. Obviously, the biggest win is the psychological, the russian with hunger and suffering from cold will suffer a big moral strike.
To conclude I expect that if things get muddy the Ukranians are going to take advantage of it but in the long run the Russians will overcome this obstacle because they train for these occasions and we are going to see an extremely violent urban war where Ukrainian people are going to stand together and fight for every city.
The advantages of having your enemy blinded by the weather and inmobyl are lots but I think that drones are going to play a great role in attacking this russian phalanx that isn't going to be able to move with comfort. The other thing that benefits the Ukranians is that this mud and snow will free for a period of time the air space that harms the Ukranians and provokes civilian casualties. Obviously, the biggest win is the psychological, the russian with hunger and suffering from cold will suffer a big moral strike.
To conclude I expect that if things get muddy the Ukranians are going to take advantage of it but in the long run the Russians will overcome this obstacle because they train for these occasions and we are going to see an extremely violent urban war where Ukrainian people are going to stand together and fight for every city.
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